Battle of the North Island riding polls, does it really matter? A prediction

by George Le Masurier | Apr 23, 2025

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Battle of the North Island riding polls, does it really matter? A prediction

Heading into the final week of the 2025 Canadian federal election, national polls predict the Mark Carney Liberals have a slight lead over the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives. That means the two federal ridings that include portions of the Comox Valley could make a difference in which party forms our next government.

The fear among progressive-minded voters has always been that one or both of the Courtenay-Alberni and North Island-Powell River ridings will swing Conservative, which would help Poilievre.

But despite this shared goal of keeping Poilievre and his cadre of right-wing Freedom Convoy MAGA-style candidates out of office, progressives are once again so embroiled in fighting each other over small-picture differences that the Conservative candidates don’t even bother to show up for public forums.

Progressive voters have been dealt a difficult and divisive hand. Should you vote for the NDP again or the Liberals? Who has the best chance of overcoming the odds and defeating the Conservatives in our two ridings? I’ve already made my choice known.

Some progressive voters in our ridings are waiting to see which party, Liberal or NDP, is ahead in the polls before casting their vote. The problem is that polling at the riding level is often unreliable.

So now, progressives have found something new to squabble about: which poll of the North Island-Powell River (NIPR) riding is the accurate one? Some polls show the Liberals ahead of the NDP. Others show the NDP with an edge. Who to believe?

The realist (pessimist?) in me says it doesn’t matter. All of the polls show the Conservatives well ahead in NIPR. So, in reality, unless all of the polls are wrong, the outcome was already written from the start when the Greens, Liberals and NDP all fielded candidates.

Three candidates to split progressive voters and a single candidate to get 100 percent of the Conservative voters. Those are bad odds.

That shared goal, that common purpose of defeating the Conservatives on the North Island immediately turned into Mutually Assured Destruction. Flat out MADness, in my view.

WHEN THE BC LIBERAL and BC Conservative parties merged during last year’s provincial election, I contacted Green Party candidate Arzeena Hamir. I asked if she was concerned about splitting the vote with the NDP now that the small-c conservative vote would no longer be split. She was not concerned, Hamir told me, because the Greens had the dominant campaign. She genuinely believed she would win.

It was magical thinking then and it’s at play again in this federal election. With two strong progressive candidates in NDP Tanille Johnston and Liberal Jennifer Lash, there’s no way on God’s green earth that either one of them will win the riding.

Lash knew this back in 2021 when she wrote a post on the blog “Malcolm Island Post whatever you want” about that year’s federal election. Disclaimer: Mark Worthing reposted a screenshot of Lash’s blog post. It’s a private group, so I have not seen the post first-hand.

In that post, Lash promotes voting for NDP Rachel Blaney for three reasons. First, because the NIPR riding “historically votes NDP or Conservative with the Liberals and other parties not garnering many votes.” Second, Blaney has “done a great job as an MP.” Third, because the NDP “did a good job pushing the Liberals to do more and go further on climate and other important issues.”

Those were good reasons for voting strategically in 2021 and they are still valid today.

So, why did she spin 180 on this issue? One can only conclude that Lash, like Hamir in the provincial election, has succumbed to magical thinking that she can actually win, despite two other progressive candidates and a single Conservative.

I hope I’m totally wrong and that Lash or Johnston wins, but the Conservative vote looks too unified.

All progressive voters, despite their party affiliations, want a Liberal government, majority or minority. But battling each other isn’t a realistic path to achieving it.

MY ELECTION PREDICTION for NIPR is that the Greens, Liberals and NDP together will get more votes than the Conservatives and lose the riding. And, like new Conservative MLA Brennan Day, Aaron Gunn – the podcaster parachuted into the riding – will go to Ottawa knowing that a majority of voters didn’t want him. But he won’t care.

In the Courtenay-Alberni riding, I think it’s a different story. NDP Gord Johns has earned enough respect from voters to squeak by for another term.

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For a Liberal government, vote for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River riding

by George Le Masurier | Apr 12, 2025

This April 1979 editorial cartoon published in the Comox District Free Press (AKA The Green Sheet), was drawn by the legendary Frank Lewis. He was a remarkable artist whose mural work can be seen all over the Island, including Victoria and Chemainus, and who contributed cartoons for the now defunct newspaper during the late 1970s and early 1980s.

For a Liberal government, vote for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River riding

A friend called me the other day to ask how she should vote in the North Island-Powell River riding on April 28th. The caller said she has always voted NDP, but some of her friends and neighbors have been leaning toward the federal Liberal Party this time.

She wondered if she should get on the bandwagon to help the Liberals win enough seats to defeat the Poilievre Conservatives?

I gave her what seems like a confusing answer to this important question.

Here’s what I said in a nutshell: If you want to help the Mark Carney Liberals form the next federal government, then DO NOT vote for them in the North Island-Powell River riding.

That seems counter-intuitive at first, but the Liberals haven’t won this riding since somewhere in the middle of the last century. For more than 50 years, the riding has swung back and forth between the NDP and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC).

No Liberal has ever come close to winning it, even when their party enjoyed wide popularity and won a national majority.

And here’s the most important point: the NDP has only overcome strong Conservative support by the slimmest of margins; roughly 3,000 votes in 2019 and 2,000 in 2021. In both of those elections, the Liberals had weak campaigns in this riding and diminished national popularity.

The CPC vote, however, has been reliably consistent through the years and mostly undiluted by competing conservative parties.

What does all of that mean? It means if too many people who used to vote NDP suddenly switch to voting Liberal, that slim margin of victory disappears. And that guarantees victory for a completely unlikable Conservative candidate.

But why? My caller asked. Couldn’t the Liberal candidate win this riding and be a strong voice for the North Island in Ottawa?

I told her that for three reasons, I believe the Liberal candidate has absolutely no chance of winning this riding.

First, historical voting trends are crystal clear: Vote totals for NDP and the CPC have consistently relegated the Liberals to a distant third place finish. To win this year, the Liberals would have to more than triple their vote count (from about 8,000 to over 24,000). That’s not just unrealistic. It’s magical thinking.

Second, until recently, this Liberal government hasn’t been widely popular, perhaps unfairly so, but the tarnish still lingers on their brand. While their new leader has injected a strong dose of hope and enthusiasm for party loyalists, not everyone has forgotten why they were so unhappy.

Third, there’s a reason the Conservatives were topping the polls before Justin Trudeau stepped down. Right-wing support has surged around the world. The anger that surfaced in the Freedom Convoy movement still exists. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith keeps stoking federal animosity. These populist signals have drawn out candidates with questionable values. For example, Aaron Gunn in the North Island.

Isn’t it the Number One goal in this election, I asked my friend, to keep those people from gaining power and turning Canada upside down, as the MAGA crowd is doing in the United States? I think it is, because defeating the Conservatives means protecting universal health care, fighting climate change, not becoming the 51st state and everything else that makes Canada great.

Yes, yes, she said, I know all that, but I want to vote FOR something, not just against the Conservatives.

As crazy as it sounds, I said, a vote for the NDP in this riding is a vote FOR a Liberal government. By voting for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River and Courtenay-Alberni ridings, you are supporting the progressive perspective, keeping it alive and giving those ideals the best chance of being solidified and expanded in Ottawa. Not voting strategically for the NDP turns back the clock on social justice.

Because the NDP still has a strong brand on Vancouver Island and the historically proven support to win this riding – actually, the best chance – voting for the NDP’s Tanille Johnston means one less seat for Poilievre and one more MP to support a potential Liberal minority government.

Or think of it the other way around, I concluded: Voting Liberal will subtract from the NDP’s total and put both parties in a dead heat tie for second place.

And, in politics, second place achieves nothing. So, I told my friend to vote for NDP Tanille Johnston.

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ELECTION 2025 INFO

Advance polls will open from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m., local time 7-10 days before Election Day. Electors must vote at their assigned poll. ID is required to vote.

To find out where and when you can start voting go to this page on the Elections Canada website

The deadline to receive mail-in ballots at Elections Canada headquarters is 6:00 p.m., Eastern time, on Election Day, and the deadline to receive mail-in ballots at local Elections Canada offices is when polls close in the riding where the office is located.

The rules for voting internationally are different than voting in Canada. When you vote in Canada, you must prove your identity and address, click here.

You have three options:

Show one original piece of photo identification issued by a Canadian government, whether federal, provincial or local, or an agency of that government, that contains your photo, name and address (for example, a driver’s licence), or
Show two pieces of identification from a list authorized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada. Both must have your name and one must also have your address (such as a health card and utility bill), or
You can still vote if you declare your identity and address in writing and have someone who knows you and who is assigned to your polling station vouch for you. The voucher must be able to prove their identity and address. A person can vouch for only one person (except in long-term care institutions).