For a Liberal government, vote for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River riding
A friend called me the other day to ask how she should vote in the North Island-Powell River riding on April 28th. The caller said she has always voted NDP, but some of her friends and neighbors have been leaning toward the federal Liberal Party this time.
She wondered if she should get on the bandwagon to help the Liberals win enough seats to defeat the Poilievre Conservatives?
I gave her what seems like a confusing answer to this important question.
Here’s what I said in a nutshell: If you want to help the Mark Carney Liberals form the next federal government, then DO NOT vote for them in the North Island-Powell River riding.
That seems counter-intuitive at first, but the Liberals haven’t won this riding since somewhere in the middle of the last century. For more than 50 years, the riding has swung back and forth between the NDP and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC).
No Liberal has ever come close to winning it, even when their party enjoyed wide popularity and won a national majority.
And here’s the most important point: the NDP has only overcome strong Conservative support by the slimmest of margins; roughly 3,000 votes in 2019 and 2,000 in 2021. In both of those elections, the Liberals had weak campaigns in this riding and diminished national popularity.
The CPC vote, however, has been reliably consistent through the years and mostly undiluted by competing conservative parties.
What does all of that mean? It means if too many people who used to vote NDP suddenly switch to voting Liberal, that slim margin of victory disappears. And that guarantees victory for a completely unlikable Conservative candidate.
But why? My caller asked. Couldn’t the Liberal candidate win this riding and be a strong voice for the North Island in Ottawa?
I told her that for three reasons, I believe the Liberal candidate has absolutely no chance of winning this riding.
First, historical voting trends are crystal clear: Vote totals for NDP and the CPC have consistently relegated the Liberals to a distant third place finish. To win this year, the Liberals would have to more than triple their vote count (from about 8,000 to over 24,000). That’s not just unrealistic. It’s magical thinking.
Second, until recently, this Liberal government hasn’t been widely popular, perhaps unfairly so, but the tarnish still lingers on their brand. While their new leader has injected a strong dose of hope and enthusiasm for party loyalists, not everyone has forgotten why they were so unhappy.
Third, there’s a reason the Conservatives were topping the polls before Justin Trudeau stepped down. Right-wing support has surged around the world. The anger that surfaced in the Freedom Convoy movement still exists. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith keeps stoking federal animosity. These populist signals have drawn out candidates with questionable values. For example, Aaron Gunn in the North Island.
Isn’t it the Number One goal in this election, I asked my friend, to keep those people from gaining power and turning Canada upside down, as the MAGA crowd is doing in the United States? I think it is, because defeating the Conservatives means protecting universal health care, fighting climate change, not becoming the 51st state and everything else that makes Canada great.
Yes, yes, she said, I know all that, but I want to vote FOR something, not just against the Conservatives.
As crazy as it sounds, I said, a vote for the NDP in this riding is a vote FOR a Liberal government. By voting for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River and Courtenay-Alberni ridings, you are supporting the progressive perspective, keeping it alive and giving those ideals the best chance of being solidified and expanded in Ottawa. Not voting strategically for the NDP turns back the clock on social justice.
Because the NDP still has a strong brand on Vancouver Island and the historically proven support to win this riding – actually, the best chance – voting for the NDP’s Tanille Johnston means one less seat for Poilievre and one more MP to support a potential Liberal minority government.
Or think of it the other way around, I concluded: Voting Liberal will subtract from the NDP’s total and put both parties in a dead heat tie for second place.
And, in politics, second place achieves nothing. So, I told my friend to vote for NDP Tanille Johnston.
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UPDATE: For what it’s worth, I have decided to vote NDP (Tanille Johnston) for the NI-PR. I firmly support Mark Carney for the Liberal leadership, but I agree with George Le Masurier on the “strategic” circumstances of this election, for this riding. After many challenging conversations with friends and associates I have concluded that if we are serious about an “anything but AG/PP” outcome the numbers can only work strategically (NDP for NI-PR). Full disclosure, for anyone who knows me, I have also done some advanced AI-assisted calculations on several accessible databases, plus a deep dive of sentiment analysis from various social media feeds. The conclusions are very clear. 1) If we do not vote strategically the results will be split and the Conservatives will win this riding, only the NDP has a statistical chance of anything else. 2) AG is most certainly fuelling a Maple MAGA narrative. VOTE.
George’s perspective is supported by the info on the website 338canada.com. It would seem that without the votes going to the Greens and the Liberals, Mr. Johns has no hope of holding his seat. This would be a tragic outcome
This is agonising!! I atteneded the “all candidates” meeting in Comox last night and, needless to say, the Conservative candidate did not show up, neither did he send apologies. Speaks volumes. But the Liberal candidate, Jennifer Lash, was by far the most well-spoken, well-informed, experienced of those who attended, and she does have a good followinng. I have always voted NDP or Green, and I’m completely torn. People trust what you have to say, but……. now I’m more torn than ever!
Jenn Lash would be a great MP serving our riding well in a Liberal majority or minority government – electing NDP to represent our riding will be a waste with likely unofficial party status after April 28th…
It’s not a waste if it keeps the Conservative from getting elected. I think Lash would be a fine MP. So would Tanille. Unfortunately, the leadership of both parties have put us in the position of choosing because they failed to see that splitting the vote would elect the Conservative. The polls/predictions (338Canada) tell this exact story. Sounds like you’re comfortable with Aaron Gunn representing you in Ottawa.
Thank you for this perspective, George.
As a long time Federal Liberal I am definitely voting NDP here in Courtenay-Alberni. Besides doing what I can to defeat the Federal Conservatives, this has the added significant benefit of supporting Gord Johns. In my view, Mr. Johns has been a great representative for our electoral district. I invite others to support him to help elect a Liberal Government and keep the blue team at bay.
My thoughts exactly. Gord Johns is the best MP we have had in the time of my residence in the area (26 yr).
Your argument reminds me of 1985 when Microsoft introduced Windows 1.0 because MS-DOS users wanted their computers to “feel” like a Macintosh. It’s as true now as it was then; if you wanted a Mac you should have bought a Mac. In the context of this election, if you want a Mark Carney led Liberal Party, vote Liberal.
That’s a funny analogy, Peter. Windows is still the dominate operating system for PCs. Extremely successful. What you say about the election is true in some ridings, but not this one. In the North Island-Powell River, if you vote Liberal, you’ll get a MAGA-style Conservative.
Touché 🙂
I just finished watching (online) the North Island-Powell River “All Candidates Forum” ~ which perhaps not-so-surprisingly did-not-include the Conservative candidate, Aaron Gunn, who was a no-show.
I think it is “relatively” safe to say that the majority of those who attended the Forum, and who read this Blog, lean left of centre, supporting the NDP, Greens, and/or the “new” (Carney) Liberals. Ergo, we are essentially all preaching to the choir, in an anything but PP standpoint. To this end, Gunn did not need to attend this event, he has the numbers to win, and saying nothing or not attending is to his advantage.
In following the “comments” of the Forum many people showed great admiration for the three wonderfully smart women, LASH/Liberal, Johnston/NDP, and Wegg/Green ~ wishing that we could have them all. The fact is, we cannot, we must choose.
While the historical numbers for this riding are what they are, it is more than clear that “unless two of these parties fold, or fall on their sword, Gunn is going to win”. There is nothing about this election that is historically fixed.
PS. When the former NDP leader Tom Mulcair tells Canadians “not to vote NDP” ~ adding that “If you can’t seriously say you’re going to form a government that can take on Trump, then get out of the way” I strongly feel we should listen!
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/former-ndp-leader-tom-mulcair-tells-canadians-not-to-vote-ndp
Let me preface these remarks by saying I have been an NDP voter.
We currently have no access to polls for this riding and I fear that past history is not relevant in this case. If as elsewhere the NDP vote is going to the Liberals that may be the best strategic vote. Your comments do not account for the fact that NDP support is at an all time low.
Another factor, as you point out, the PC candidate is more objectionable than most and it seems likely previous PC supporters are more likely to go to the Liberals than the NDP.
Another factor I believe we need to consider is that it is seniors who are flocking to the Liberals, and there is no shortage of seniors in this riding. I do not think the case is as clear as you project. Thank you for providing this forum.
Christine — For some local polling, check out Smart Vote: https://smartvoting.ca/federaldashboard
In the NI-PR riding, they are currently showing 46% Con, 26% NDP, 21% Liberal, and 3% Green — within +/- 4% and a confidence level of 95%.
Of course all is dependent on turnout plus the extent of strategic voting.
@Christine Dickinson – I very much agree. See my comments above. When the former NDP leader Tom Mulcair tells Canadians “not to vote NDP” we should listen! Nothing about this election is historically fixed. If the stakes are what they are [and they certainly are] every seat is going to count toward Federal leadership. Likewise, as you pointed out, many small “c” conservatives are leaning to Carney, especially in our riding, for good reason.
Tom Mulcair spoke about the national situation, most probably referring to Ontario and Quebec. I doubt he would say the same thing about the North Island’s two ridings. If every seat is going to count in the battle between the Liberals and CPC, then denying the CPC our two seats accomplishes exactly what he’s preaching. All indications are (check the polls) that a strong Liberal showing in NI-PR and C-A ridings secures a Conservative victory, giving Poilievre another seat. The Liberal can’t win here. The polls show them splitting the vote with the NDP. It’s a shame voters have to choose. The NDP and Liberal leaderships should have seen this coming and agreed to field a single candidate. Blame them, but we have to choose. The historically proven choice is to vote NDP.
This article and these comments all point to the need for proportional representation. Since my riding has changed, I’ve had to consider how to vote strategically. It’s ridiculous. I put up NDP sign and my neighbour (a nice guy) puts up a Conservative one. Our votes cancel one another out. It’s visual evidence that the first-past-the-post electoral system is undemocratic.
Today, on https://338canada.com/59021e.htm, which is one of the most advanced modelling tools, there is only a 5-point difference between the NDP and Liberals, for NI-PR, which is the subject of this post. C-A has a 17-point difference, for the NDP over the Liberals, but in both ridings the Conservatives are projected to win, handily. I think this argument (to vote NDP) holds for the C-A but not for the NI-PR.
I very much agree that the “NDP and Liberal leaderships should have seen this coming and agreed to field a single candidate” ~ and that “we have to choose” but if we wanted to really get ourselves on the map we’d elect at least one of these candidates who will sit with the most likely winner of the election, Jennifer LASH, with Mark Carney. Either way we will need a consolidated VOTE to make any of this stick, NDP or Liberal, or we will simply all fall to lack of organization.
Thanks George,
I appreciate your thoughtful analysis and it has spurred me to give it serious consideration.
It goes against the grain though to vote NDP.
However, one may well have to do that, in consideration of your well reasoned opinion here.
Thanks so much for this George — will be sending it out to friends who are wavering because they want to “do the right thing”.
George – thank you for a strategic insight based in reality. You make a powerful argument.
George — Great to see you publishing again! Thanks for your clarity.
George, glad to see you’re back.
Story suggestion: Large property tax rate increases compared to inflation rates and increases in averge taxpayer income. Have service levels improved at a similar rate? Why is there little opposition?
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Hi Gary — Quite a ways off topic re: the election — But glad you read my election article. Decafnation is not really back, just wanted to shed some light on how some misguided but otherwise progressive-minded people may foul up this election by voting Liberal when only the NDP can win in the North Island riding. They’re going to split the vote and elect an ultra right-wing YouTuber. I share your disappointment in Comox Valley news outlets.