The Week: Manno’s speech, buying beds in CR, high five for Johns and the bird for Gunn

The Week: Manno’s speech, buying beds in CR, high five for Johns and the bird for Gunn

Let’s take a closer look … at what the Regional Hospital Board is doing and a few other things

The Week: Manno’s speech, buying beds in CR, high five for Johns and the bird for Gunn

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The Week’ is back. It’s Decafnation’s weekly commentary on anything that comes our way. We’ll show up in your inbox every Friday morning. This week, we write a speech for Mayor Manno, flip-off Aaron Gunn, dig into how much Valley taxpayers are sending to Campbell River, wonder if Josie Osborne could be the new BC NDP leader and some other stuff.

 

BUT FIRST, PUT ‘EM TO WORK

All three Comox Valley municipalities will be swearing in new council members and mayors this week, starting with the Village of Cumberland inaugural meeting at 5.30 pm on Monday, Nov. 2.

The Town of Comox and the City of Courtenay will inaugurate their six councillors and mayors on Wednesday, Nov. 4. Comox starts at 5 pm and Courtenay at 4 pm.

The Comox Valley Regional District will swear in new Electoral Area directors and municipal designates starting at 4 pm on Nov. 17.

 

MANNO’S IGNAUGURAL SPEECH?

My favorite uncle wrote speeches for several U.S. presidents and presidential candidates, such as Adali Stevenson. As a top dog in the Agriculture Department, he even begrudgingly wrote speeches for Richard Nixon when he campaigned in major farming states, and always boasted that Nixon lost in every one.

So with that lineage, I thought brand new Courtenay Mayor Manno Theos might tap me to write his inaugural address next Wednesday, when he and the new council are sworn into office. I haven’t heard from him, so I wrote a sample. It’s probably good he didn’t ask.

My fellow Courtenates,

One score and seven years ago, the warm people of this community welcomed me from Nanaimo into your city, where I couch surfed a couple of nights a week while I waited tables and sometimes appeared in-person at council meetings – but not often, ZOOM is my friend! Anyhoo, I say this because I always wanted to use that “score and seven” thing.

You may wonder why, as I address you today, I’m wearing a fluid, unstitched Chiton, the classic Greek tunic that symbolizes my ancestral roots. I want you to feel comfortable seeing me like this, just as I will appear on Zoom during many future council meetings. Hey! Relax, I’m just messing with ya.

But seriously, the point is change. I promised it during the campaign, though you may not know that because it was talked about on my private Facebook page where you weren’t invited. And change is going to happen. Big time. Huge.

The biggest change I will make on my first day in office is to lower the ridiculous expectations you have for my mayoralty. I would like to promise that I’ll focus on creating new economic drivers, lowering your property taxes and healing the sick. I would like to tell you that the homeless will be housed, that outdoor pools will be moved indoors, debts will be paid, bigger bridges and dams will be built and paper towels will replace those horribly loud air dryers in public restrooms.

But I can’t. I’m not Zeus, after all. I can promise you a good deal on a two-week spa vacation to a Greek island. Family and friends pricing!

I hope that doesn’t sound like I’m using the office for personal gain. But what do I care? I just got a $95,000 a year job with great benefits and a four-year no-cut contract. Beats smiling for tips.

I want to thank everyone who supported me and helped make up fake facts for my door hangars. A big shout-out to my wife who lives in Nanaimo and sometimes with me in Greece. And a special thanks to Trish McPhail — couldn’t have done it without ya, kid.

In conclusion, change is good. So, let’s have some fun while I figure out what that means.

 

WHO IS GUNN WORKING FOR?

Kudos to Courtenay-Alberni MP Gord Johns for calling out a Parliamentary colleague for dereliction of his duties.

While other Parliamentarians debated legislation and minded the business of our nation, North Island-Powell River MP Aaron Gunn was busy helping Conservatives get elected across the province.

“The BC conservatives aren’t simply tolerating Aaron Gunn’s divisive rhetoric, they’re actively giving him a platform during this election campaign, while Parliament is sitting,” Johns told the Nanaimo News Now. “Instead of being in Parliament standing up for his constituents, he’s out there obviously campaigning for his future job either as Premier or as leader of the Conservative Party.”

Johns said on social media that he questions Gunn’s priorities.

“Since Parliament returned this fall, I’ve risen 49 times in the House of Commons to speak on issues affecting our communities. During that same period, parliamentary records show that Aaron Gunn, the MP for North Island–Powell River, hasn’t risen to speak in the House even once,” he said.

Gunn was scheduled to speak to party faithful at an Alberni brewpub, but because of backlash over Gunn’s extreme views on residential schools, it was reported that party organizers moved an event from an Alberni brewpub to a secluded park.

We don’t know who Gunn is working for, but it’s not the people in the North Island-Powell River riding.

 

OSBORNE FOR NDP LEADER

The BC New Democratic Party chose a new interim leader yesterday: Jennifer Whiteside, the former cabinet minister and re-elected MLA for New Westminister-Coquitlam. Now, as the party searches its new permanent leader, we hope they consider Mid-Island Pacific riding MLA Josie Osborne, a former Tofino mayor, for the leadership. She has a good working relationship with Courtenay-Alberni NDP MP Gord Johns. Together, they could be a formidable provincial-federal team.

 

WHAT? VALLEY FUNDING CR BEDS?

What’s going on at the Comox Strathcona Regional Hospital District board?

In 2020, the board had accumulated some healthy financial reserves. Island Health said the board could contribute some of those funds to build a $25 million Health Hub in Courtenay.

Island Health currently has multiple offices in rental offices around the Comox Valley. Local directors have proposed moving all of the rental offices and some health-related non-profits into a single building. They argued a central hub would create better services for complex and integrated care.

But in December last year, Island Health informed the Hospital Board that it had nixed the idea of a Health Hub. Instead, only the new Long Term Care facility in Campbell River would proceed.

Island Health, which controls capital budgets and planning, suggested the board could contribute its reserves to build what is now slated as a $130 million long-term care facility in Campbell River. Dutifully, the Hospital Board voted last month to formally commit $53 million to the Campbell River facility.

This means that Comox Valley residents are currently on the hook to send $32.3 million, or 61 percent of the cost, to Campbell River and without any guarantee for a Health Hub facility in the Valley.

“Some of the big topics in the Comox Valley local governments sometimes fly under the radar,” Area A Director Daniel Arbour told Decafnation this week. “It will be interesting to see how the Province and the Comox-Strathcona Hospital Board work together to improve health infrastructure and services in the Comox Valley, after such a big investment by Comox Valley residents in Campbell River.”

A handful of the 10 Comox Valley directors who sit on the 24-member board took serious issue with that decision, but an overwhelming majority of Hospital board members voted to proceed. 

Here’s how the numbers break out.
Courtenay pays $12m or 37.2 percent
Comox pays $5.7m or 17.6 percent
Cumberland pays $1.8m or 5.6 percent
Area A pays $4.7m or 14.6 percent
Area B pays $3.6m or 11.1 percent
Area C pays $4.5m or 13.9 percent

 

IN OTHER ELECTION NEWS …

The funny business going on around the world in elections this week makes our recent provincial and municipal election chaos look rather … well, Canadian, by comparison.

President Donald Trump has been trying to sabotage the American Mid-Term Elections coming up Tuesday, Nov. 3. Trump’s interference in key states could get ugly before the voting is done. And if Democrats successfully flip Congress out of MAGA control, the Trump crowd could make things worse.

After record voting in Tuesday’s Israeli election, it’s still unclear whether current Prime Minister Netanyahu, the country’s longest serving leader, or his opponent will successfully piece together a majority coalition. Because Israel has a proportional representation system, no party generally wins a majority and has to form a coalition with other parties.

In Brazil, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won reelection, beating his right-wing opponent Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro by about three percentage points. Flavio Bolsonaro’s father is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup to overturn his loss to Lula in 2022. And Flavio’s brother, who lives in the US, is serving a four-year sentence for attempting to coerce the judges with Trump administration help in his father’s case. So, of course, Flavio Bolsonaro fled to the U.S. where he’ll fit right in with Trump & Sons. The new American Dream.

Meanwhile, in Serbia, a student-led, leaderless movement called Student List, propelled its candidate to defeat the authoritarian strongman, Aleksandar Vucic, and take control of the country’s 250-seat Parliament. Since the party doesn’t have a leader and the students who founded it didn’t run for office, nobody knows yet who the next Prime Minister will be. The students nominated a list of “university professors, actors and farmers.” Sounds about right.

 

YOUR AI NOVEL WRITTEN IN SPACE

Finally, here’s an idea: Let’s launch AI data centers into space.

 

 

 

 

 

Courtenay council votes, July to September 2026

4 votes, from the adopted minutes

July 29, 2026 · minutes

Council vote data: Zio Advertising's BC Council Votes tracker, from the Courtenay City Council's adopted minutes. Snapshot taken October 29, 2026.

Comox council votes, July 2026

2 votes, from the adopted minutes

July 8, 2026 · minutes

Council vote data: Zio Advertising's BC Council Votes tracker, from the Town of Comox Council's adopted minutes. Snapshot taken October 30, 2026.

Cumberland council votes, May to September 2026

1 vote, from the adopted minutes

May 11, 2026 · minutes

Council vote data: Zio Advertising's BC Council Votes tracker, from the Village of Cumberland Council's adopted minutes. Snapshot taken October 30, 2026.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD

HALLOWEEN

• FREE Comox Hiring and Education Expo 2026 (Nov 5, Comox Community Centre): Local career and education fair with free admission.

• Monster Mash (Oct 30, Comox Valley Sports Centre Arena #2): Family-friendly Halloween ice and slime activity ($2.63).

• Halloween Haunted Mine Experience (Oct 31): Seasonal themed walk-through; check Comox Valley Arts for routing.

• The LINC Haunted House (Oct 23 – 31, LINC Youth Centre, Courtenay): Annual community haunted house experience ($2.50/person or $5/family).

 

OTHER STUFF

• Vancouver Island Squatch Watch Conference (Oct 30 – Nov 1, Florence Filberg Centre, Courtenay): A three-day inaugural event featuring speakers, Indigenous artists, and Sasquatch research discussions. Details and ticketing via Experience Comox Valley.

• Comox Hiring and Education Expo 2026 (Nov 5, Comox Community Centre): Local career and education fair with free admission.

• Water Words (Oct 30, Sid Williams Theatre, Courtenay): Collaborative theatrical production featuring international artists.

• Musical Contra Dance (Oct 31, Merville Hall, Merville): Community social dance night with tiered pricing.

• North Island Heritage Sites Lecture (Nov 3, Courtenay and District Museum): Local history presentation ($5 members, $6 public).

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Will Cole-Hamilton bucks the trend, flips Courtenay Comox riding to NDP

More than four thousand fewer Green Party voters showed up this year and incumbent Conservative MLA Brennan Day lost 787 votes as the NDP won in Courtenay-Comox by about a three percent margin. The ‘blue wave’ was strong across the province, however, taking 64 of the 93 seats in the BC Legislature

THE WEEK: NDP trails BC Conservatives in polls, undecideds will determine outcome

This week: Province-wide polling indicates the NDP have fallen behind BC Conservatives heading into Election Day and that undecided NDP and Green Party voters will decide the outcome in swing ridings like Courtenay-Comox. Also, what should British Columbians think about the Alberta secession referendum? And if you suffer from Long Covid or other chronic diseases, funding cuts to virtual care may affect you

Voting stats show some positive trends in the local government elections

The Comox Valley’s 2026 local government election results show more women sought public office and were elected this year, especially in the Town of Comox. Plus overall voter turnout increased over the last municipal election in 2022. And, we look back to 1949, the year one new council member was born.

Decafnation recommends Will Cole-Hamilton for Courtenay-Comox riding

Will Cole-Hamilton is not just the “greenist” candidate in the Courtenay-Comox riding, he also the best candidate. Decafnation recommends that you vote for him. His Conservative Party opponent’s colleagues are fostering a hard-right Maple-MAGA movement. And, please, don’t vote Green again, you’re just helping the Conservatives.

It’s a clean sweep in Comox! In Courtenay, Manno’s your new mayor after vote split

Comox voters wanted change, and they got it, electing four new council members and returning two incumbents, who had opposed the recent Official Community Plan update, which had triggered a grassroots movement for change. In Courtenay, voters got change whether they wanted it or not as Manno Theos won the mayor’s chair in a vote split between his opponents.

It’s U-Pick’em time tomorrow, choose carefully from this wild and crazy crop of candidates

The Post War and Boomer Babies forgot to do a bunch of stuff, or just left it undone because they were too scared to raise taxes. So, when the millennials came along in 2018 they started cleaning up the mess. Now the city may fall into the hands of a wild and crazy bunch of newcomers. So let’s talk taxes, debt, pools, water meters and, once again, the Puntledge Triangle.

How to decide who to vote for in a municipal election…

Town of Comox voters will choose between two opposing visions for the future when they cast their ballots on Saturday. One that values sustaining the town’s character through community-driven planning, where everyone feels heard and respected. The other values developer-driven planning with little regard for individual homeowners and neighborhoods.

The deciding election issue in Comox: Which vision of the town’s future do you share?

Town of Comox voters will choose between two opposing visions for the future when they cast their ballots on Saturday. One that values sustaining the town’s character through community-driven planning, where everyone feels heard and respected. The other values developer-driven planning with little regard for individual homeowners and neighborhoods.

Overwhelmed by so many candidates? Just vote for the ones you know and like

Overwhelmed by so many candidates? Just vote for the ones you know and like

Photo Caption

Overwhelmed by so many candidates? Just vote for the ones you know and like

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B y the end of next week, Comox Valley residents will know who is officially running for local government offices in our three municipalities, the three regional electoral areas, School District 71 and the Islands Trust.

In the last municipal elections of 2022, there were a total of 57 candidates seeking the 31 local elected offices – seven in Courtenay and Comox, five in Cumberland, seven on the school board, three regional district area representatives and two for the Denman/Hornby Island trust area.

That’s a lot of candidates for voters in each voting jurisdiction to assess. In 2022, there were 14 candidates seeking the seven School District 71 positions alone, and another 18 for Courtenay City Council.

For many Valley residents, it’s just too much work and too confusing to gather the necessary information to make thoughtful selections. It could partly explain why only 30 percent of eligible voters turn out for local government elections.

With no single source of information about each individual candidate – such as comprehensive news media coverage – some eligible voters don’t bother casting a ballot. Others rely on conversations with their friends and neighbors.

Perhaps the best advice for voters is the simplest: You do not have to vote for candidates to fill all the vacant seats.

In response to last week’s pre-election article in Decafnation, subscriber Dede Fitton expressed this wide-spread frustration.

“To be serious, I live in Courtenay and I don’t know how any voter can sort through the “debates” on local (social media) forums. I’d like to make casting an informed vote easier but damned if I can figure out how.

“I think I should keep an open mind about new candidates. And a critical look at present council members. Now, how do I do that? I don’t follow council meetings.
I also know that most of a council member’s job is performed on committees and in the community, not at the public meeting.

“I wish there were criteria for candidates. Even more, I wish there were criteria for voters! (Tongue firmly in cheek).”

Ms. Fitton has identified the main obstacle facing Valley residents seeking factual information about individual candidates: Absent robust election coverage in the Comox Valley Record or the local radio stations’ news websites, people often resort to the Facebook pages devoted to local municipal politics.

But that almost never helps because although some people try to post factual information, they are usually overrun by paid trolls, bots and people hiding behind fake names. The pages are dominated by people who really just want to rant about one thing or another without adding anything useful to the conversation.

For example, when incumbent Courtenay Councilor Wendy Morin recently announced she is running again, her post was greeted with vile comments. Mark Jackson wrote, “No fing way. 18% tax increase a few years back cause (sic) of her. Sooner vote for a dog.” Jonny Valentine wrote, “We need to clean all these usless (sic) politicians out of city hall. Not voting for this chick for sure.”

Both Jackson and Valentine appear to be fake names on empty FB accounts. They might be bots or trolls paid by organizations determined to defeat forward-thinking council candidates.

There are only two elector organizations registered for the Comox Valley with Elections BC. One is the Conservative Electors Association run by David Denhoff, of North Vancouver, and the other is ParentsVoice BC, run by Marc Vella, of Langley.

ParentsVoice BC is a new BC party pushing school board candidates with anti-vaxx and conspiratorial views, per CBC news. Their slogan “Take Back Our Schools” translates to opposing education programs on health, racism, gender and sexuality.

For these reasons, sitting council members, school trustees and mayors generally avoid engaging in social media frenzies. It’s unfortunate, because without these online harassments and personal attacks, people could be getting factual information directly from their local government representatives.

So, how should voters assess this year’s candidates?

Perhaps the best advice for voters is the simplest: You do not have to vote for candidates to fill all the vacant seats.

If you have found a few candidates that you believe will represent you well, just vote for them. Period. You already have all the information you need to cast a thoughtful ballot.

It’s not necessary to fill the ballot with six council members plus the mayor. Just show up and cast a vote for the two or three or four who seem capable. Voting for only three or four candidates makes a perfectly valid ballot.

For many, the overwhelming part is getting a grasp on every candidate instead of just identifying a few worthy of support.

To help people do that, the Comox Valley Chamber of Commerce has scheduled three distinct candidate forums in late September.

– A forum for Cumberland candidates at 5:30 pm on Monday, Sept. 21 at the Cumberland Cultural Centre location.

– A forum for Comox candidates at 5:30 pm on Monday, Sept. 28 at the Comox Legion.

– A final forum for Courtenay candidates at 5:30 pm on Thursday, Oct. 1 at the North Island College Stan Hagen Theatre.

The Comox Valley Social Planning Society will also host an all-candidates forum specifically on substance abuse strategies at 5:00 pm on Tuesday, Sept. 22 at the Westerly Best Western Hotel in Courtenay. Candidates are being invited to meet the public starting at 4:00 pm.

There are rumours that Project Watershed and the NIC student union may hold candidate forums. In the past, there have been election events at Gladstones Brewing Co. in Courtenay and at some of the senior assisted living facilities.

That’s not much, but maybe the Record newspaper will engage more deeply during this election cycle. And Decafnation readers can read our upcoming Candidate Survey to compare individual responses.

 

 

 

 

 

WHO HAS OFFICIALLY FILED FOR OFFICE

Here’s a current list of who has filed or declared to run for local government positions this year. Nominations will close Sept. 11. For an updated list, see our separate post, which is updated several times every day.

COURTENAY
Bob Wells — Mayor, incumbent
Will Cole-Hamilton — Council, incumbent
Wendy Morin — Council, incumbent
David Frisch — Council, incumbent
Evan Jolicoeur — Council, incumbent
Manno Theos — Mayor
Dick Clancy — Council
Phil Adams — Council
Guancarlo “Benny” Benvenuti — Council
Rosanna Chamberlin — Council
Erik Eriksson — Council

 

CUMBERLAND
Troy Therrien — Council, incumbent
Vicky Brown — Mayor, incumbent
Nick Ward –Counmcil, incumbent

TOWN OF COMOX
Nicole Minions — Mayor, incumbent

CVRD ELECTORAL AREAS
Daniel Arbour — Electoral Area A, incumbent
Rich Hardy, Electoral Area B, incumbent
Arzeena Hamir — Electoral Area B
Ariel Becherer — Electoral Area C
Norman McPhail – Electoral Area C

ISLANDS TRUST
Sam Borthwick — Denman, incumbent
Perri Gorrara — Denman

 

 

 

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Photo Caption orem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. Donec odio. Quisque volutpat mattis eros. And all that Jazz                WHAT IS THE ECOLOGICAL ACCOUNTING PROCESS...

Will Cole-Hamilton bucks the trend, flips Courtenay Comox riding to NDP

More than four thousand fewer Green Party voters showed up this year and incumbent Conservative MLA Brennan Day lost 787 votes as the NDP won in Courtenay-Comox by about a three percent margin. The ‘blue wave’ was strong across the province, however, taking 64 of the 93 seats in the BC Legislature

THE WEEK: NDP trails BC Conservatives in polls, undecideds will determine outcome

This week: Province-wide polling indicates the NDP have fallen behind BC Conservatives heading into Election Day and that undecided NDP and Green Party voters will decide the outcome in swing ridings like Courtenay-Comox. Also, what should British Columbians think about the Alberta secession referendum? And if you suffer from Long Covid or other chronic diseases, funding cuts to virtual care may affect you

Voting stats show some positive trends in the local government elections

The Comox Valley’s 2026 local government election results show more women sought public office and were elected this year, especially in the Town of Comox. Plus overall voter turnout increased over the last municipal election in 2022. And, we look back to 1949, the year one new council member was born.

Decafnation recommends Will Cole-Hamilton for Courtenay-Comox riding

Will Cole-Hamilton is not just the “greenist” candidate in the Courtenay-Comox riding, he also the best candidate. Decafnation recommends that you vote for him. His Conservative Party opponent’s colleagues are fostering a hard-right Maple-MAGA movement. And, please, don’t vote Green again, you’re just helping the Conservatives.

It’s a clean sweep in Comox! In Courtenay, Manno’s your new mayor after vote split

Comox voters wanted change, and they got it, electing four new council members and returning two incumbents, who had opposed the recent Official Community Plan update, which had triggered a grassroots movement for change. In Courtenay, voters got change whether they wanted it or not as Manno Theos won the mayor’s chair in a vote split between his opponents.

It’s U-Pick’em time tomorrow, choose carefully from this wild and crazy crop of candidates

The Post War and Boomer Babies forgot to do a bunch of stuff, or just left it undone because they were too scared to raise taxes. So, when the millennials came along in 2018 they started cleaning up the mess. Now the city may fall into the hands of a wild and crazy bunch of newcomers. So let’s talk taxes, debt, pools, water meters and, once again, the Puntledge Triangle.

How to decide who to vote for in a municipal election…

Town of Comox voters will choose between two opposing visions for the future when they cast their ballots on Saturday. One that values sustaining the town’s character through community-driven planning, where everyone feels heard and respected. The other values developer-driven planning with little regard for individual homeowners and neighborhoods.

The deciding election issue in Comox: Which vision of the town’s future do you share?

Town of Comox voters will choose between two opposing visions for the future when they cast their ballots on Saturday. One that values sustaining the town’s character through community-driven planning, where everyone feels heard and respected. The other values developer-driven planning with little regard for individual homeowners and neighborhoods.

“Liberal Rush” tricked voters in NDP ridings and exposed an electoral system flaw

“Liberal Rush” tricked voters in NDP ridings and exposed an electoral system flaw

George Le Masurier photo

“Liberal Rush” tricked voters in NDP ridings and exposed an electoral system flaw

By

The 2025 federal election turned out pretty much as expected. The Liberals won a strong minority government. The Conservatives swept Alberta and Saskatechen. The NDP lost official status in the “Liberal Rush.” But who could have predicted Pierre Poilievre would be so unpopular in his own riding?

With 168 Liberal seats, seven NDP and one Green, this government looks solid for a whole term. That stability will benefit Canadians as the Mark Carney government deals with Trump and the economic chaos he has caused.

We fortunately escaped the damage to Canada that Poilievre – the “Mini-Me Trump” – would have caused by channeling the US Presidents attacks on education, the CBC and media, clean energy initiatives and more.

Now here comes the “But ….” Despite the positive big picture outcome, this election exposed a glaring vulnerability within our electoral system.

And that vulnerability caused otherwise smart people to forget how our Canadian parliamentary system actually works. Namely: We do not have a proportional representation form of government.

A Canadian majority or strong minority government gives a single party almost dictatorial powers to change and make laws, to decide how to spend our money and to shape our social, environmental and financial futures.

That’s because, like today’s American Congress, our provincial and federal governments vote in a block. If you’re a federal MP or a provincial MLA, you’re expected to vote how your party’s caucus tells you to vote. Exceptions to this rule are rare and usually get you booted out of town.

So it makes sense that when voters go to the polls on election day, they cast their ballots for the party they want to form the government, the party whose values, policies and promises align with their own.

And there’s the problem. What if the party you align with best has no hope of winning your riding? What if there are three parties running candidates in your riding and you like parts of all of them? What if you want to vote for one party in your riding but doing so will result in the election of another party that you detest, that stands for the opposite of everything you value?

Those were the conflicts facing many voters on Vancouver Island this year. And it was the NDP, Liberals and Green parties themselves that squeezed Island voters into this awkward and divisive situation.

When the NDP, Liberals and federal Greens all ran candidates against a single Conservative, the parties forced progressive voters to figure out on their own how the vote would split and where their vote would do the most good.

Sadly, the Liberal party enthusiasm convinced many traditional NDP voters on the Island to buy into the fantasy that a Liberal candidate could win in ridings like North Island-Powell River (NIPR) where they’ve never finished better than third for over half a century.

They sold “The whole country’s going Liberal this year” like snake oil hustlers in the Wild West. It was a hollow promise.

Yes, it’s true that the Liberals got about 12,000 more votes in the North Island-Powell River riding than they did in 2021 – most of those stolen from the NDP.

But they still finished third and accomplished nothing.

The whole push to “Vote Liberal” didn’t help anybody. It didn’t help the Liberal party win the riding. It didn’t help the NDP, which fell about 5,000 votes short. And it won’t help the majority of people living in the riding – especially indigenous people – who will now be represented by somebody they didn’t want and who will be a do-nothing opposition backbencher.

It had, in fact, the opposite effect of what the Liberals intended.

In NIPR, the Liberals, NDP and Greens tallied 47,819 combined votes compared to 30,551 for the Conservative. It should have been a dominant mandate for progressive values: 60.6 percent.

But we still lost. A gift to the Conservatives.

It was the same sad story in Nanaimo and Cowichan. Across the province, this strategy resulted in a gain of four Liberal seats but a loss of 10 NDP seats, for a net loss of six progressive MPs.

Did people get swept by the charm of Mark Carney and think they were voting for him? Canadians don’t elect a prime minister. We elect MPs in ridings and the leader of the party with the most seats becomes our PM.

After this election, the political parties and many individual candidates will take time to reflect on their campaigns and how their strategies correlated with the final results.

Conservatives will try to understand how they lost a 25 point lead in about eight weeks. Pierre Poilievre will reflect on how he lost his seat in Parliament. Political operatives from all parties will try to assess the effect US President Trump had on this election. The NDP will think about its future as a viable federal party.

Voters should take time to reflect, too, on whether their vote choice got the result they wanted. They might also think about which were the informative and trustworthy sources of information they relied on to make those choices, and which were not.

In the election aftermath, there will be a renewed call for electoral reform. Proponents of proportional representation will make another noble attempt, but Ottawa will be wary of such a fundamental change while Trump still has eyes on our natural resources.

The simpler solution is for the three progressive parties on Vancouver Island to embrace the greater good of sustaining and expanding progressive ideals by fielding a single candidate in the next election.

In short, stop fighting among ourselves.

 

 

 

 

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Battle of the North Island riding polls, does it really matter? A prediction

Battle of the North Island riding polls, does it really matter? A prediction

Photo Caption

Battle of the North Island riding polls, does it really matter? A prediction

By

Heading into the final week of the 2025 Canadian federal election, national polls predict the Mark Carney Liberals have a slight lead over the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives. That means the two federal ridings that include portions of the Comox Valley could make a difference in which party forms our next government.

The fear among progressive-minded voters has always been that one or both of the Courtenay-Alberni and North Island-Powell River ridings will swing Conservative, which would help Poilievre.

But despite this shared goal of keeping Poilievre and his cadre of right-wing Freedom Convoy MAGA-style candidates out of office, progressives are once again so embroiled in fighting each other over small-picture differences that the Conservative candidates don’t even bother to show up for public forums.

Progressive voters have been dealt a difficult and divisive hand. Should you vote for the NDP again or the Liberals? Who has the best chance of overcoming the odds and defeating the Conservatives in our two ridings? I’ve already made my choice known.

Some progressive voters in our ridings are waiting to see which party, Liberal or NDP, is ahead in the polls before casting their vote. The problem is that polling at the riding level is often unreliable.

So now, progressives have found something new to squabble about: which poll of the North Island-Powell River (NIPR) riding is the accurate one? Some polls show the Liberals ahead of the NDP. Others show the NDP with an edge. Who to believe?

The realist (pessimist?) in me says it doesn’t matter. All of the polls show the Conservatives well ahead in NIPR. So, in reality, unless all of the polls are wrong, the outcome was already written from the start when the Greens, Liberals and NDP all fielded candidates.

Three candidates to split progressive voters and a single candidate to get 100 percent of the Conservative voters. Those are bad odds.

That shared goal, that common purpose of defeating the Conservatives on the North Island immediately turned into Mutually Assured Destruction. Flat out MADness, in my view.

 


 

WHEN THE BC LIBERAL and BC Conservative parties merged during last year’s provincial election, I contacted Green Party candidate Arzeena Hamir. I asked if she was concerned about splitting the vote with the NDP now that the small-c conservative vote would no longer be split. She was not concerned, Hamir told me, because the Greens had the dominant campaign. She genuinely believed she would win.

It was magical thinking then and it’s at play again in this federal election. With two strong progressive candidates in NDP Tanille Johnston and Liberal Jennifer Lash, there’s no way on God’s green earth that either one of them will win the riding.

Lash knew this back in 2021 when she wrote a post on the blog “Malcolm Island Post whatever you want” about that year’s federal election. Disclaimer: Mark Worthing reposted a screenshot of Lash’s blog post. It’s a private group, so I have not seen the post first-hand.

In that post, Lash promotes voting for NDP Rachel Blaney for three reasons. First, because the NIPR riding “historically votes NDP or Conservative with the Liberals and other parties not garnering many votes.” Second, Blaney has “done a great job as an MP.” Third, because the NDP “did a good job pushing the Liberals to do more and go further on climate and other important issues.”

Those were good reasons for voting strategically in 2021 and they are still valid today.

So, why did she spin 180 on this issue? One can only conclude that Lash, like Hamir in the provincial election, has succumbed to magical thinking that she can actually win, despite two other progressive candidates and a single Conservative.

I hope I’m totally wrong and that Lash or Johnston wins, but the Conservative vote looks too unified.

All progressive voters, despite their party affiliations, want a Liberal government, majority or minority. But battling each other isn’t a realistic path to achieving it.

 


 

MY ELECTION PREDICTION for NIPR is that the Greens, Liberals and NDP together will get more votes than the Conservatives and lose the riding. And, like new Conservative MLA Brennan Day, Aaron Gunn – the podcaster parachuted into the riding – will go to Ottawa knowing that a majority of voters didn’t want him. But he won’t care.

In the Courtenay-Alberni riding, I think it’s a different story. NDP Gord Johns has earned enough respect from voters to squeak by for another term.

 

 

 

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Greens dropped ridings to avoid vote splitting … ???

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Greens dropped ridings to avoid vote splitting … ???

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For a Liberal government, vote for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River riding

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For a Liberal government, vote for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River riding

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A friend called me the other day to ask how she should vote in the North Island-Powell River riding on April 28th. The caller said she has always voted NDP, but some of her friends and neighbors have been leaning toward the federal Liberal Party this time.

She wondered if she should get on the bandwagon to help the Liberals win enough seats to defeat the Poilievre Conservatives?

I gave her what seems like a confusing answer to this important question.

Here’s what I said in a nutshell: If you want to help the Mark Carney Liberals form the next federal government, then DO NOT vote for them in the North Island-Powell River riding.

That seems counter-intuitive at first, but the Liberals haven’t won this riding since somewhere in the middle of the last century. For more than 50 years, the riding has swung back and forth between the NDP and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC). 

No Liberal has ever come close to winning it, even when their party enjoyed wide popularity and won a national majority. 

And here’s the most important point: the NDP has only overcome strong Conservative support by the slimmest of margins; roughly 3,000 votes in 2019 and 2,000 in 2021. In both of those elections, the Liberals had weak campaigns in this riding and diminished national popularity.

The CPC vote, however, has been reliably consistent through the years and mostly undiluted by competing conservative parties.

What does all of that mean? It means if too many people who used to vote NDP suddenly switch to voting Liberal, that slim margin of victory disappears. And that guarantees victory for a completely unlikable Conservative candidate.

But why? My caller asked. Couldn’t the Liberal candidate win this riding and be a strong voice for the North Island in Ottawa?

I told her that for three reasons, I believe the Liberal candidate has absolutely no chance of winning this riding. 

First, historical voting trends are crystal clear: Vote totals for NDP and the CPC have consistently relegated the Liberals to a distant third place finish. To win this year, the Liberals would have to more than triple their vote count (from about 8,000 to over 24,000). That’s not just unrealistic. It’s magical thinking.

Second, until recently, this Liberal government hasn’t been widely popular, perhaps unfairly so, but the tarnish still lingers on their brand. While their new leader has injected a strong dose of hope and enthusiasm for party loyalists, not everyone has forgotten why they were so unhappy.

Third, there’s a reason the Conservatives were topping the polls before Justin Trudeau stepped down. Right-wing support has surged around the world. The anger that surfaced in the Freedom Convoy movement still exists. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith keeps stoking federal animosity. These populist signals have drawn out candidates with questionable values. For example, Aaron Gunn in the North Island.

Isn’t it the Number One goal in this election, I asked my friend, to keep those people from gaining power and turning Canada upside down, as the MAGA crowd is doing in the United States? I think it is, because defeating the Conservatives means protecting universal health care, fighting climate change, not becoming the 51st state and everything else that makes Canada great.

Yes, yes, she said, I know all that, but I want to vote FOR something, not just against the Conservatives.

As crazy as it sounds, I said, a vote for the NDP in this riding is a vote FOR a Liberal government. By voting for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River and Courtenay-Alberni ridings, you are supporting the progressive perspective, keeping it alive and giving those ideals the best chance of being solidified and expanded in Ottawa. Not voting strategically for the NDP turns back the clock on social justice.

Because the NDP still has a strong brand on Vancouver Island and the historically proven support to win this riding – actually, the best chance – voting for the NDP’s Tanille Johnston means one less seat for Poilievre and one more MP to support a potential Liberal minority government.

Or think of it the other way around, I concluded: Voting Liberal will subtract from the NDP’s total and put both parties in a dead heat tie for second place.

And, in politics, second place achieves nothing. So, I told my friend to vote for NDP Tanille Johnston.


 

 

 

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ELECTION 2025 INFO

Advance polls will open from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m., local time 7-10 days before Election Day. Electors must vote at their assigned poll. ID is required to vote.

To find out where and when you can start voting go to this page on the Elections Canada website

The deadline to receive mail-in ballots at Elections Canada headquarters is 6:00 p.m., Eastern time, on Election Day, and the deadline to receive mail-in ballots at local Elections Canada offices is when polls close in the riding where the office is located.

The rules for voting internationally are different than voting in Canada. When you vote in Canada, you must prove your identity and address, click here.

You have three options:

  • Show one original piece of photo identification issued by a Canadian government, whether federal, provincial or local, or an agency of that government, that contains your photo, name and address (for example, a driver’s licence), or
  • Show two pieces of identification from a list authorized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada. Both must have your name and one must also have your address (such as a health card and utility bill), or
  • You can still vote if you declare your identity and address in writing and have someone who knows you and who is assigned to your polling station vouch for you. The voucher must be able to prove their identity and address. A person can vouch for only one person (except in long-term care institutions).

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