Battle of the North Island riding polls, does it really matter? A prediction

Battle of the North Island riding polls, does it really matter? A prediction

by | Apr 23, 2025

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Battle of the North Island riding polls, does it really matter? A prediction

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Heading into the final week of the 2025 Canadian federal election, national polls predict the Mark Carney Liberals have a slight lead over the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives. That means the two federal ridings that include portions of the Comox Valley could make a difference in which party forms our next government.

The fear among progressive-minded voters has always been that one or both of the Courtenay-Alberni and North Island-Powell River ridings will swing Conservative, which would help Poilievre.

But despite this shared goal of keeping Poilievre and his cadre of right-wing Freedom Convoy MAGA-style candidates out of office, progressives are once again so embroiled in fighting each other over small-picture differences that the Conservative candidates don’t even bother to show up for public forums.

Progressive voters have been dealt a difficult and divisive hand. Should you vote for the NDP again or the Liberals? Who has the best chance of overcoming the odds and defeating the Conservatives in our two ridings? I’ve already made my choice known.

Some progressive voters in our ridings are waiting to see which party, Liberal or NDP, is ahead in the polls before casting their vote. The problem is that polling at the riding level is often unreliable.

So now, progressives have found something new to squabble about: which poll of the North Island-Powell River (NIPR) riding is the accurate one? Some polls show the Liberals ahead of the NDP. Others show the NDP with an edge. Who to believe?

The realist (pessimist?) in me says it doesn’t matter. All of the polls show the Conservatives well ahead in NIPR. So, in reality, unless all of the polls are wrong, the outcome was already written from the start when the Greens, Liberals and NDP all fielded candidates.

Three candidates to split progressive voters and a single candidate to get 100 percent of the Conservative voters. Those are bad odds.

That shared goal, that common purpose of defeating the Conservatives on the North Island immediately turned into Mutually Assured Destruction. Flat out MADness, in my view.

 

 

WHEN THE BC LIBERAL and BC Conservative parties merged during last year’s provincial election, I contacted Green Party candidate Arzeena Hamir. I asked if she was concerned about splitting the vote with the NDP now that the small-c conservative vote would no longer be split. She was not concerned, Hamir told me, because the Greens had the dominant campaign. She genuinely believed she would win.

It was magical thinking then and it’s at play again in this federal election. With two strong progressive candidates in NDP Tanille Johnston and Liberal Jennifer Lash, there’s no way on God’s green earth that either one of them will win the riding.

Lash knew this back in 2021 when she wrote a post on the blog “Malcolm Island Post whatever you want” about that year’s federal election. Disclaimer: Mark Worthing reposted a screenshot of Lash’s blog post. It’s a private group, so I have not seen the post first-hand.

In that post, Lash promotes voting for NDP Rachel Blaney for three reasons. First, because the NIPR riding “historically votes NDP or Conservative with the Liberals and other parties not garnering many votes.” Second, Blaney has “done a great job as an MP.” Third, because the NDP “did a good job pushing the Liberals to do more and go further on climate and other important issues.”

Those were good reasons for voting strategically in 2021 and they are still valid today.

So, why did she spin 180 on this issue? One can only conclude that Lash, like Hamir in the provincial election, has succumbed to magical thinking that she can actually win, despite two other progressive candidates and a single Conservative.

I hope I’m totally wrong and that Lash or Johnston wins, but the Conservative vote looks too unified.

All progressive voters, despite their party affiliations, want a Liberal government, majority or minority. But battling each other isn’t a realistic path to achieving it.

 

 

MY ELECTION PREDICTION for NIPR is that the Greens, Liberals and NDP together will get more votes than the Conservatives and lose the riding. And, like new Conservative MLA Brennan Day, Aaron Gunn – the podcaster parachuted into the riding – will go to Ottawa knowing that a majority of voters didn’t want him. But he won’t care.

In the Courtenay-Alberni riding, I think it’s a different story. NDP Gord Johns has earned enough respect from voters to squeak by for another term.

 

 

 

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Greens dropped ridings to avoid vote splitting … ???

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by | Apr 16, 2025

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When the federal debate commission disinvited the Green Party from national debates, its leader, Jonathan Pedneault divulged an election strategy that evidently didn’t make its way to North Island-Powell River candidate Jessica Wegg.

Nor did the strategy reach Chris Markevich in the Courtenay-Alberni riding.

The commission yesterday said the Greens were banned from participating in the French and English debates because they didn’t meet the requirement of running candidates in 90 percent of the nation’s ridings.

When Pedneault was asked why, he gave a revealing answer. He told the CBC that the party removed candidates for “strategic reasons” to avoid “splitting the progressive vote.”

Yet that’s exactly what Wegg and Markevich are doing in their ridings.

 

 

 

 

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For a Liberal government, vote for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River riding

For a Liberal government, vote for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River riding

by | Apr 12, 2025

This April 1979 editorial cartoon published in the Comox District Free Press (AKA The Green Sheet), was drawn by the legendary Frank Lewis. He was a remarkable artist whose mural work can be seen all over the Island, including Victoria and Chemainus, and who contributed cartoons for the now defunct newspaper during the late 1970s and early 1980s.

For a Liberal government, vote for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River riding

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A friend called me the other day to ask how she should vote in the North Island-Powell River riding on April 28th. The caller said she has always voted NDP, but some of her friends and neighbors have been leaning toward the federal Liberal Party this time.

She wondered if she should get on the bandwagon to help the Liberals win enough seats to defeat the Poilievre Conservatives?

I gave her what seems like a confusing answer to this important question.

Here’s what I said in a nutshell: If you want to help the Mark Carney Liberals form the next federal government, then DO NOT vote for them in the North Island-Powell River riding.

That seems counter-intuitive at first, but the Liberals haven’t won this riding since somewhere in the middle of the last century. For more than 50 years, the riding has swung back and forth between the NDP and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC). 

No Liberal has ever come close to winning it, even when their party enjoyed wide popularity and won a national majority. 

And here’s the most important point: the NDP has only overcome strong Conservative support by the slimmest of margins; roughly 3,000 votes in 2019 and 2,000 in 2021. In both of those elections, the Liberals had weak campaigns in this riding and diminished national popularity.

The CPC vote, however, has been reliably consistent through the years and mostly undiluted by competing conservative parties.

What does all of that mean? It means if too many people who used to vote NDP suddenly switch to voting Liberal, that slim margin of victory disappears. And that guarantees victory for a completely unlikable Conservative candidate.

But why? My caller asked. Couldn’t the Liberal candidate win this riding and be a strong voice for the North Island in Ottawa?

I told her that for three reasons, I believe the Liberal candidate has absolutely no chance of winning this riding. 

First, historical voting trends are crystal clear: Vote totals for NDP and the CPC have consistently relegated the Liberals to a distant third place finish. To win this year, the Liberals would have to more than triple their vote count (from about 8,000 to over 24,000). That’s not just unrealistic. It’s magical thinking.

Second, until recently, this Liberal government hasn’t been widely popular, perhaps unfairly so, but the tarnish still lingers on their brand. While their new leader has injected a strong dose of hope and enthusiasm for party loyalists, not everyone has forgotten why they were so unhappy.

Third, there’s a reason the Conservatives were topping the polls before Justin Trudeau stepped down. Right-wing support has surged around the world. The anger that surfaced in the Freedom Convoy movement still exists. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith keeps stoking federal animosity. These populist signals have drawn out candidates with questionable values. For example, Aaron Gunn in the North Island.

Isn’t it the Number One goal in this election, I asked my friend, to keep those people from gaining power and turning Canada upside down, as the MAGA crowd is doing in the United States? I think it is, because defeating the Conservatives means protecting universal health care, fighting climate change, not becoming the 51st state and everything else that makes Canada great.

Yes, yes, she said, I know all that, but I want to vote FOR something, not just against the Conservatives.

As crazy as it sounds, I said, a vote for the NDP in this riding is a vote FOR a Liberal government. By voting for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River and Courtenay-Alberni ridings, you are supporting the progressive perspective, keeping it alive and giving those ideals the best chance of being solidified and expanded in Ottawa. Not voting strategically for the NDP turns back the clock on social justice.

Because the NDP still has a strong brand on Vancouver Island and the historically proven support to win this riding – actually, the best chance – voting for the NDP’s Tanille Johnston means one less seat for Poilievre and one more MP to support a potential Liberal minority government.

Or think of it the other way around, I concluded: Voting Liberal will subtract from the NDP’s total and put both parties in a dead heat tie for second place.

And, in politics, second place achieves nothing. So, I told my friend to vote for NDP Tanille Johnston.

 

 

 

ELECTION COUNTDOWN

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ELECTION 2025 INFO

Advance polls will open from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m., local time 7-10 days before Election Day. Electors must vote at their assigned poll. ID is required to vote.

To find out where and when you can start voting go to this page on the Elections Canada website

The deadline to receive mail-in ballots at Elections Canada headquarters is 6:00 p.m., Eastern time, on Election Day, and the deadline to receive mail-in ballots at local Elections Canada offices is when polls close in the riding where the office is located.

The rules for voting internationally are different than voting in Canada. When you vote in Canada, you must prove your identity and address, click here.

You have three options:

  • Show one original piece of photo identification issued by a Canadian government, whether federal, provincial or local, or an agency of that government, that contains your photo, name and address (for example, a driver’s licence), or
  • Show two pieces of identification from a list authorized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada. Both must have your name and one must also have your address (such as a health card and utility bill), or
  • You can still vote if you declare your identity and address in writing and have someone who knows you and who is assigned to your polling station vouch for you. The voucher must be able to prove their identity and address. A person can vouch for only one person (except in long-term care institutions).

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The Week: Give us full transparency when paid ‘volunteers’ work with CV students

The Week: Give us full transparency when paid ‘volunteers’ work with CV students

by | Dec 13, 2022

The Week: Give us full transparency when paid ‘volunteers’ work with CV students

By

No doubt Comox Valley school administrators are bustling during this last week of classes before the Christmas-New Years’ holiday break to determine if Youth For Christ volunteers have been praying with students in district schools and how widespread it might have become.

Since we broke the story last week that a Youth For Christ (YFC) volunteer has been concluding his open gym time for Cumberland Grade 8 and 9 students with a prayer session, according to parents of children in that school, questions have arisen about how long this might have been going on and why so many school district administrators looked the other way?

Youth For Christ paid employees have “worked” as volunteers in Comox Valley schools since the 1990s, according to SD71 Board of Education Chair Michele Waite. And former Board Chair Sheila McDonnell also told us that she had been aware of the program occurring with the principal’s agreement and “on the basis of them (YFC) working in a team with groups of children, not one-on-one, no reference to religions, no prayers, etc.”

It seems likely now, given that parents have blown the whistle on YFC leading prayers in Cumberland, that other YFC employees could have done the same in other schools over the past nearly 30 years. It’s also possible this one YFC worker was a renegade. And maybe the district review will conclude that no prayer sessions ever took place and parents raised a stink based on bad intel, though that seems unlikely.

But the problem with using paid volunteers – surely an oxymoron – at all is that they have an employer to whom they are more indebted than to the schools where they volunteer. In this case, that means their underlying mission is the ministry of seeing “these students come to know and love Christ, to experience the resurrection life that He has for His children.” To quote one YFC worker.

A faith-based group could certainly play an important role in supporting our schools, the educators and the students. But the parameters of any faith-based volunteer have to be clear and closely monitored because religious teaching of any kind is prohibited by law in public schools, and the opportunity for proselytizing is tempting.

As former SD71 School trustee Cliff Boldt wrote in a comment to last week’s story, school principals must be held to account for what occurs on their watch. Who else is going to monitor these activities in each school? Well, of course, parents should and, in Cumberland, they did.

Perhaps at the top of the list of mistakes in this matter has been the lack of transparency by school administrators and the Youth For Christ organization.

The YFC workers are not volunteers. They are paid employees of a Christian ministry and their job is to interact with young people. They should be clearly identified as such so students and parents can decide whether it’s appropriate to interact with them.

There should be written agreements for any faith-based group that clearly prohibits religious stories, discussions or practices in conversations or activities inside the schools without written permission from the parents, who have been fully notified.

BC Law requires all schools and provincial schools to be “conducted on strictly secular and non-sectarian principles.” And that “the highest morality must be inculcated, but no religious dogma or creed is to be taught in a school or provincial school.”

Somehow now, Comox Valley school administrators must assure parents that their children will not be exposed to religious proselytizing and that the district can be trusted to monitor volunteers who might be tempted to circumvent this law.

—-

It’s a bitch, isn’t it, when climate change comes right up and slaps you in the face? “Hey, buddy, I’m real and I’m here. My name is Drought.”

The driest fall in more than half a century has shut down the BC Hydro power generating plant on the Puntledge River and it’s also turned off the taps up at Mt Washington. The ski area’s tough water restrictions reflect the severity of our drought and also warn us about the future.

It has long been forecasted that Vancouver Island’s glaciers will disappear within the next two decades and that the declining snowpack will intensify and stretch our summer droughts, which are now extending into winter.

So it’s up to every Comox Valley resident, not just the skiers on the hill, to conserve water. Install low-volume toilets. Flush when necessary. Don’t leave taps open. Plant drought-tolerate species. Is it too late to add recycling wastewater for agriculture, golf courses and parks to the regional sewerage system?

One thing we know for sure about our water resources is that, in the long run, they’re not going to get any better than they are today.

—

YAY – A breakthrough in nuclear fusion is coming. According to the New York Times, Scientists at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California announced yesterday that they have “successfully used lasers to achieve nuclear fusion whose output exceeded the input from the lasers.” This verifies the potential of nuclear fusion as a future energy source, which will be a game-changer in our fight against climate change. But its practical use is still a long way from being harnessed for broad consumption.

BOO – To those who go about things in the wrong way. SIMBA Investments’ Shawn Vincent and Russell Tibbles basically berated Town of Comox staff at last week’s council meeting for not giving them what they wanted, when they wanted it. And then, doubling down on his Not-The-Nice-Guy Act, Vincent referred to Mayor Nicole Minions by her first name instead of showing the respect for her title that she deserves during a formal council meeting. But then, Vincent was there to tell the council that he is suing the town, so it really couldn’t have gone much better.

YAY — For another two years without auto insurance rate hikes. The NDP government plans to freeze ICBC rates for another 24 months. That will make five years in a row. Switching to the “no-fault” insurance model last year, which eliminated lawyers from the system, has helped keep costs down. And that’s good news for all of us shaking our heads over $7 for a head of lettuce. 

 

 

 

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What’s dire: the lack of Comox subdivisions or climate change and gradual deforestation?

What’s dire: the lack of Comox subdivisions or climate change and gradual deforestation?

by | Dec 13, 2022

“This land is an ecosystem, with worth just because it exists.”

What’s dire: the lack of Comox subdivisions or climate change and gradual deforestation?

 

By JEN GROUNDWATER

Look, I’m not into otherizing and demonizing people. Call me naïve, but I think most people are trying to do the right thing in life, based on their own particular way of looking at the world.

It’s human nature to assume, “The way I see things is the way things really are.” But it’s all a question of perspective.

Take a simplistic example: 18 acres of forest. One set of people will see it as “undeveloped.” To them, it’s an opportunity waiting to be grabbed: some empty, unused land that they can turn into a nice neighbourhood with nice homes where a bunch of nice people will live. In the process, they’ll provide income for themselves, their employees, and many different tradespeople, retailers, and other people in the business of real estate.

Seen through the lens of a developer, we should waste no time developing this valuable asset.

Another set of people sees these 18 acres as a critical part of the fight against climate change. Intact forests and mature trees improve air quality, reduce energy costs, sequester carbon, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve water cleanliness, and increase property values. This land is an ecosystem, with worth just because it exists. It’s home to many species of animals, plants and other organisms. It belongs to the community.

Seen through the lens of the climate crisis, we should make every effort to safeguard this valuable asset

.

A QUESTION OF WHAT IS DIRE

On December 7, Comox Council heard from developer Shawn Vincent of Simba Investments and his associate Russ Tibbles. They’re wondering what the holdup is with Simba’s most recent PLR subdivision application for an 18-acre parcel of land on Pritchard Road near Cambridge Road in Comox.

Tibbles said, “The situation is dire.” He said Simba has put in three applications so far and has been waiting for a reply since February 2022 on the third one. The developer is now taking the town to court.

Vincent explained that he was “not here to create friction; we’re trying to follow all the rules, and it’s not happening.” He mentioned several others who have also waited a very long time to replace portions of the woods in Northeast Comox with roads and buildings: Rob Leighton, Bill Toews, Chris Gage and Brian McLean. Vincent said, “We just want to do business.”

It was presented as a simple enough request. But development in 2022 should not be business as usual. When Tibbles said, “The situation is dire,” he was talking about the lack of response to Simba’s application. He seems unaware that the truly dire situation is climate change. We can’t avoid it: we’re in a climate emergency. And it literally gets worse with every new subdivision that goes in where a forest or other natural area used to be.

A particular concern of Russ Tibbles’ was the access trail through the development. Apparently, the town has asked for a 20-metre right-of-way for the trail, and this is a major sticking point. This, said Tibbles, would make the right-of-way the same width as Noel Avenue.

I’ve got to be honest here: that seems a pitifully small green space, compared to the amount of forest that Simba is planning to knock down. Again, perspective. Another way to look at it: 18 acres is 72,843.4 square metres, so a 20-metre strip of greenery doesn’t seem like a terribly huge amount to ask for.

But from Tibbles’ perspective: “It serves no purpose! It wastes valuable residential land…increases the cost of housing, decreases affordability…” and, by forcing Simba to drop another two lots, it adds another $700,000 to the cost of the remaining lots.

Wait, what? Just how much are these properties going to cost, when the lots are that expensive?! We’re clearly not talking about housing that’s affordable in any sense of the word.

So now we’re taking down a forest to build single-family homes that only a tiny percentage of people will be able to afford? And how many homes are we talking about? Forty-eight homes, at last count (the first PLR was for 64 homes). But I digress.

 

A DIFFERENT POINT OF VIEW

At the end of the council meeting, Joanne McKechnie of Save Our Forests Team Comox Valley presented Council with almost 400 signatures from citizens asking for stronger protections for Comox’s trees.

Her comment: “The 2011 OCP was approved at a time when the global climate crisis was not quite as dire as it is today. The zoning for development of forested parcels of land in the 2011 OCP no longer reflects what is best to preserve the environment in our community, nor does it reflect the best interests of the community.”

Shawn Vincent wrapped up his pitch by saying, “The conversation tonight is about 20 metres, but it’s not just about that… It’s about how we do business together and right now, it’s not great.”

Interestingly, I agree with him on this point. Just for completely different reasons.

Jen Groundwater is a professional editor and writer and a Comox resident.

 

 

 

 

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Greens dropped ridings to avoid vote splitting … ???

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The Week: Ken Grant fined by Elections BC and Parksville confronted by development, water issues

The Week: Ken Grant fined by Elections BC and Parksville confronted by development, water issues

by | Dec 6, 2022

The Week: Ken Grant fined by Elections BC and Parksville confronted by development, water issues

By

This week, we learned that another candidate for the Comox Town Council was fined for misdeeds under the Election Act and Local Elections Campaign Financing Act, that Alberta wants to give the finger to Ottawa and Ontario wants to neuter municipal governments and that some people in Parksville are worried about an 800-unit housing development along the Englishman River. That’s a lot of ground to cover, so let’s get started.

—

Elections BC, the provincial election watchdog, has fined Comox Councillor Ken Grant for using lawn signs that lacked a complete authorization statement. While the violation would not have likely misled readers of the sign and stickers were used to correct the omissions, Director of Investigations Adam Barnes nevertheless spanked Grant for being a careless numbskull.

He didn’t actually say it like that. Here’s what Barnes said, “You have participated in 6 local government elections as a candidate, and should be aware of the election advertising requirements.”

New Councillor Steve Blacklock was fined earlier this year for a violation of the Campaign Financing Act during his unsuccessful run in the town’s byelection last year.

Neither councillor committed a major crime, but the public expects their council members to pay attention to the rules and details. A similar approach to council business could result in woefully wrong decision-making or expose taxpayers to unnecessary financial liabilities.

—

After reading our comment about record low water levels in the Puntledge River, a representative of the Greig Greenway Society in Parksville contacted us about similar concerns for the Englishman River.

Waterfront Properties, a bare trustee for the PCI Group, a Vancouver developer, wants to build an 800-unit subdivision on 140 acres of forested land along the river and within a fragile ecosystem. The land at 1465 Greig Road is part of the Coastal Douglas Fir ecosystem and borders on the salmon-bearing Englishman River.

At first glance, this sounds a lot like the subdivision proposed by 3L Developments for the triangle of land between the Puntledge and Browns rivers in the Comox Valley. And, in fact, urban sprawl is one similar concern of the Parksville society because grocery stores, schools and other services are more than three kilometers away from where the housing would be built.

But the preponderance of issues in Parksville are different and mostly relate to the city’s low water supply in Arrowsmith Lake and its inability even now to meet the provincial requirements for water levels in the river necessary to sustain salmon habitat.

A retired Nanaimo Regional District engineer has told the Parksville council that the city hasn’t been able to meet the provincial water flow target during the summer months since the Arrowsmith Lake dam opened in 1999.

The society worries that the additional 56 million liters of water necessary to serve 800 new households during the dry months of June through October would stress the city’s drinking water supply and the river’s marine life to unsustainable levels. Further, because the trees, shrubs and grasses that cover the Greig property now capture rainwater and filter it through the soil to the Englishman River aquifer, clearing the land and replacing nature with concrete curbs and gutters would rob even more water for household use.

The society has also pointed out to the city council that the development is proposed for a floodplain, fragments a wildlife corridor and, while the development is primarily a mixture of multi-family housing, it does not include affordable housing below market rates.

A key question for the Parksville council is that if the city’s water supply isn’t sufficient to meet current provincial regulations, how will it provide water for such a large development? Will they need to dam additional lakes? Impose California-style water restrictions during the summer months?

We don’t usually report on issues outside the Comox Valley, but water supply problems are on a non-stop train headed toward every BC community – indeed, everywhere around the world.

—

BOO – Alberta Premier Danielle Smith wants to unfriend the rest of Canada but retain the benefits. The province’s new sovereignty legislation would allow Smith and her cabinet to choose what federal rules and regulations to follow and ignore the rest. Oh, she still wants Alberta’s share of every Canadian’s federal income taxes, but when Ottawa slows her party’s imposition of the conservative agenda, she will instruct provincial entities, like Crown Corporations, to break those federal laws. Sounds like a dictatorship. Sounds unconstitutional.

BOO – Ontario Premier Doug Ford has implemented his own coup to overthrow democratically elected local governments. The province plans to dictate permitted land uses, densities and building heights to municipal governments, in effect taking over local zoning and removing municipal authority over its planning process. Imagine if Victoria issued permits for 14-story condo buildings in the Comox Valley and disregarded the wishes of local residents. Couldn’t happen in BC … could it?

YAY — At least we don’t live in Indonesia where the government has adopted a new criminal code banning sexual relations except within marriage and prohibitions against insulting the president or the national identity. All the new crimes carry mandatory prison sentences. You might want to cancel that trip to Bali. 

Thought du jour
“A community is like a ship; everyone ought to be prepared to take the helm.”
– Henrik Ibsen

 

 

 

 

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Greens dropped ridings to avoid vote splitting … ???

Photo Caption hen the federal debate commission disinvited the Green Party from national debates, its leader, Jonathan Pedneault divulged an election strategy that evidently didn't make its way to North Island-Powell...