If you want to help the Mark Carney Liberals form the next federal government, then DO NOT vote for them in the North Island-Powell River riding. That sounds counter-intuitive, but only a vote for the NDP can save this riding from swinging to the Conservatives in 2025. Why? Read on for the full article.

For a Liberal government, vote for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River riding

For a Liberal government, vote for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River riding
A friend called me the other day to ask how she should vote in the North Island-Powell River riding on April 28th. The caller said she has always voted NDP, but some of her friends and neighbors have been leaning toward the federal Liberal Party this time.
She wondered if she should get on the bandwagon to help the Liberals win enough seats to defeat the Poilievre Conservatives?
I gave her what seems like a confusing answer to this important question.
Here’s what I said in a nutshell: If you want to help the Mark Carney Liberals form the next federal government, then DO NOT vote for them in the North Island-Powell River riding.
That seems counter-intuitive at first, but the Liberals haven’t won this riding since somewhere in the middle of the last century. For more than 50 years, the riding has swung back and forth between the NDP and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC).
No Liberal has ever come close to winning it, even when their party enjoyed wide popularity and won a national majority.
And here’s the most important point: the NDP has only overcome strong Conservative support by the slimmest of margins; roughly 3,000 votes in 2019 and 2,000 in 2021. In both of those elections, the Liberals had weak campaigns in this riding and diminished national popularity.
The CPC vote, however, has been reliably consistent through the years and mostly undiluted by competing conservative parties.
What does all of that mean? It means if too many people who used to vote NDP suddenly switch to voting Liberal, that slim margin of victory disappears. And that guarantees victory for a completely unlikable Conservative candidate.
But why? My caller asked. Couldn’t the Liberal candidate win this riding and be a strong voice for the North Island in Ottawa?
I told her that for three reasons, I believe the Liberal candidate has absolutely no chance of winning this riding.
First, historical voting trends are crystal clear: Vote totals for NDP and the CPC have consistently relegated the Liberals to a distant third place finish. To win this year, the Liberals would have to more than triple their vote count (from about 8,000 to over 24,000). That’s not just unrealistic. It’s magical thinking.
Second, until recently, this Liberal government hasn’t been widely popular, perhaps unfairly so, but the tarnish still lingers on their brand. While their new leader has injected a strong dose of hope and enthusiasm for party loyalists, not everyone has forgotten why they were so unhappy.
Third, there’s a reason the Conservatives were topping the polls before Justin Trudeau stepped down. Right-wing support has surged around the world. The anger that surfaced in the Freedom Convoy movement still exists. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith keeps stoking federal animosity. These populist signals have drawn out candidates with questionable values. For example, Aaron Gunn in the North Island.
Isn’t it the Number One goal in this election, I asked my friend, to keep those people from gaining power and turning Canada upside down, as the MAGA crowd is doing in the United States? I think it is, because defeating the Conservatives means protecting universal health care, fighting climate change, not becoming the 51st state and everything else that makes Canada great.
Yes, yes, she said, I know all that, but I want to vote FOR something, not just against the Conservatives.
As crazy as it sounds, I said, a vote for the NDP in this riding is a vote FOR a Liberal government. By voting for the NDP in the North Island-Powell River and Courtenay-Alberni ridings, you are supporting the progressive perspective, keeping it alive and giving those ideals the best chance of being solidified and expanded in Ottawa. Not voting strategically for the NDP turns back the clock on social justice.
Because the NDP still has a strong brand on Vancouver Island and the historically proven support to win this riding – actually, the best chance – voting for the NDP’s Tanille Johnston means one less seat for Poilievre and one more MP to support a potential Liberal minority government.
Or think of it the other way around, I concluded: Voting Liberal will subtract from the NDP’s total and put both parties in a dead heat tie for second place.
And, in politics, second place achieves nothing. So, I told my friend to vote for NDP Tanille Johnston.
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ELECTION 2025 INFO
Advance polls will open from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m., local time 7-10 days before Election Day. Electors must vote at their assigned poll. ID is required to vote.
To find out where and when you can start voting go to this page on the Elections Canada website
The deadline to receive mail-in ballots at Elections Canada headquarters is 6:00 p.m., Eastern time, on Election Day, and the deadline to receive mail-in ballots at local Elections Canada offices is when polls close in the riding where the office is located.
The rules for voting internationally are different than voting in Canada. When you vote in Canada, you must prove your identity and address, click here.
You have three options:
- Show one original piece of photo identification issued by a Canadian government, whether federal, provincial or local, or an agency of that government, that contains your photo, name and address (for example, a driver’s licence), or
- Show two pieces of identification from a list authorized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada. Both must have your name and one must also have your address (such as a health card and utility bill), or
- You can still vote if you declare your identity and address in writing and have someone who knows you and who is assigned to your polling station vouch for you. The voucher must be able to prove their identity and address. A person can vouch for only one person (except in long-term care institutions).
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